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  • #16
    Originally posted by Andy View Post
    I'm just looking at the correlation of NDX vs SPX on this one, and how printing money lifts all boats. There's an offset there, and I think NDX will rise to match the rest, at least short term. There is that spectre of all time highs again...minus the employment and economics to match...but I think I'll squeak out of it.

    QQQ $67 Feb 16 calls @ .65
    I bought a few calls on the qqq thursday. Thinking aapl might get a bounce and I believe the market is on it's uptrend till march. We might get a small correction but i'm not worried. The market has been doing this same thing since obama took office. Run up the first few months on the year.

    I'm a little heavy on bwld. Reasons are several. They seam to do well in february and march because of the superbowl and march madness. A lot of analyst start to recommend the stock here. And earnings is feb 12th which I think are going to be good. I bet cramer puts a buy on iot this week. Not that I care what he thinks.

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    • #17
      If cramer puts a buy on it...short the living daylights out of it, lol

      I'm not doing much on stocks. Just a little here and there when something seems obvious to me and I get bored

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Andy View Post
        QQQ $67 Feb 16 calls @ .65
        Out at .96

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        • #19
          Originally posted by gjnl View Post
          You have seen "Apple TV," but it is an HD receiver (pictured below). The "Apple TV" that is being rumored now will be a a high definition television like a Sony or Samsung etc. It is supposed to be able to fully integrate with your Apple computer systems.

          All the best,
          GJ
          Rumors are it will be out next year.

          My mom who bought her shares when it was at $4. is kicking herself for not selling when it was over $700.
          Embrace uncertainty. Hard problems rarely have easy solutions. Jonah Lehrer

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Andy View Post
            Out at .96
            It's always good taking a profit. It might be time to load up on tbt. I have owned some shares outright. But I might start adding options to.

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            • #21
              ultrashort treasurys? Never studied that game, and a decaying psudo-derivative game on those...out of my league.

              Remember FAS and FAZ back in the crash...now there was some spectacular movement, lol. And you could get options in them for ridiculous moves . What was it, FAZ went from like $150 to $30 in 2 days when they did the bailouts? Can you imagine some puts on that? Well, the premium was still nutty waaaaay out of the money, but if you knew what was coming up...

              Kinda like some NFLX 130's or so before the squeeze in recent days. I was looking at those being something like .50 before earnings and now theyre maybe $20. Damn I need a crystal ball

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Andy View Post
                ultrashort treasurys? Never studied that game, and a decaying psudo-derivative game on those...out of my league.

                Remember FAS and FAZ back in the crash...now there was some spectacular movement, lol. And you could get options in them for ridiculous moves . What was it, FAZ went from like $150 to $30 in 2 days when they did the bailouts? Can you imagine some puts on that? Well, the premium was still nutty waaaaay out of the money, but if you knew what was coming up...

                Kinda like some NFLX 130's or so before the squeeze in recent days. I was looking at those being something like .50 before earnings and now theyre maybe $20. Damn I need a crystal ball
                NFLX was just over 100 before earnings.

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                • #23
                  Right. I was talking about the 130 calls. Nobody would buy them without knowing it would go up what it did, but can you imagine if you knew what would happen?

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Andy View Post
                    Right. I was talking about the 130 calls. Nobody would buy them without knowing it would go up what it did, but can you imagine if you knew what would happen?
                    I would of made over a million dollars. Behonest with ya. I though a short would of been the better play at the time. Boy was I wrong. Glad it wasn't a strong feeling.

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by TheRainman View Post
                      I would of made over a million dollars. Behonest with ya. I though a short would of been the better play at the time. Boy was I wrong. Glad it wasn't a strong feeling.
                      I kinda wish I was more knowledgeable in the FX markets. Been looking over the latest USD/JPY and USD/EUR moves...Looks like a major push in the making getting started checking the 10yr charts. I wonder if the Fed will be on top of this or not. Nothing like a currency war, eh?

                      On a side note...have you checked ammo prices lately? I'm getting this feeling that maybe I should convert that pile in the garage into a new BMW, its not like I'll be shooting the heavier calibers anytime soon. Who'd a thunk that lead, brass, and chemicals would be one of the best investments lately, lol

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Andy View Post
                        I kinda wish I was more knowledgeable in the FX markets. Been looking over the latest USD/JPY and USD/EUR moves...Looks like a major push in the making getting started checking the 10yr charts. I wonder if the Fed will be on top of this or not. Nothing like a currency war, eh?

                        On a side note...have you checked ammo prices lately? I'm getting this feeling that maybe I should convert that pile in the garage into a new BMW, its not like I'll be shooting the heavier calibers anytime soon. Who'd a thunk that lead, brass, and chemicals would be one of the best investments lately, lol
                        The way I understand the FX market it is more of a dailey timing thing. I think they take interest out on some currencies. I haven't tried it yet.

                        Now is the time while its hot. But with the fed tossing all this money on the markets inflation has to hit sooner or later.

                        This market seams so much like the last few years. First few months everybody talking about the recovery is here. Then they realize it was a false recovery. Except this time were face with obamacare and higher taxes next year. I really can't see us not going into another recession no later then early next year. It a good time to save some cash for the next real big down turn because the next recovery is going to come with inflation, and big money will be made in that one.

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by TheRainman View Post
                          ...
                          Originally posted by TheRainman View Post
                          This market seams so much like the last few years. First few months everybody talking about the recovery is here. Then they realize it was a false recovery. Except this time were face with obamacare and higher taxes next year. I really can't see us not going into another recession no later then early next year. It a good time to save some cash for the next real big down turn because the next recovery is going to come with inflation, and big money will be made in that one.
                          I've been sitting in cash with just this expectation, although not at all a reasoned one as you present it, Rainman. I don't remember what made me go to cash in summer 2011, I think, when the Dow was at 1270. Something made me think I might miss again the opportunities of 2008, wanted to be ready for a crash that never came as big as I'd hoped (sorry country). I've been watching it go up and fearing I made mistake, wondering if I should start phasing my 403B back to stocks before the market gets even higher. So, Rainman, you think it might be safe to wait? Does anyone have any other predictions? I've read analyst predictions all over the map.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Random View Post
                            [SIZE=3][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]I've been sitting in cash with just this expectation, although not at all a reasoned one as you present it, Rainman. I don't remember what made me go to cash in summer 2011, I think, when the Dow was at 1270. Something made me think I might miss again the opportunities of 2008, wanted to be ready for a crash that never came as big as I'd hoped (sorry country). I've been watching it go up and fearing I made mistake, wondering if I should start phasing my 403B back to stocks before the market gets even higher. So, Rainman, you think it might be safe to wait? Does anyone have any other predictions? I've read analyst predictions all over the map.
                            This market is insane. Be careful!

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Random View Post
                              [SIZE=3][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]I've been sitting in cash with just this expectation, although not at all a reasoned one as you present it, Rainman. I don't remember what made me go to cash in summer 2011, I think, when the Dow was at 1270. Something made me think I might miss again the opportunities of 2008, wanted to be ready for a crash that never came as big as I'd hoped (sorry country). I've been watching it go up and fearing I made mistake, wondering if I should start phasing my 403B back to stocks before the market gets even higher. So, Rainman, you think it might be safe to wait? Does anyone have any other predictions? I've read analyst predictions all over the map.
                              Whats going on now is nothing we have seen before ever. We got a fed thats been pumping unprecedented amount of cash into the market to prop up the markets. In the past the fed would do this only when we were actually in a recession. Now this is going to sound political but i'm not trying to. Bernanke feels he must do this because of this administrations policies. The sad part is no one knows from past history what is the out come of this because it has never been done before like this. But generally when the fed pumps in money there is some inflation to follow. Now you can imagine what might happen now. Gold should really take off at some point and if it does that spells big problems for bernanke's plans.

                              The problem with the theory that the markets goes up because the economy is getting better is not true. Look at span market. It's been going up right into it recession. Money has to go somewhere. And right now the treasury market is not giving any return on money. And bernanke has told us he is going to keep proping up the market untill the unemployment numbers reach 6.5%. Now that doesn't mean the markets can't crash. The markets is stronger then bernanke. But everytime the market gets hit, bernanke has said he's there to save us. So thats why it's been save to play the downturns. But my opinion is, obamacare and rising taxes are going to be to much for it. So we can see a major downturn at anytime. I think gold is the safest investment. Buy the gld if your going to sit on something.

                              The economist are always surprise by how our earning have been holding up. I'm not for two reasons. Less competition for the larger companies because the smaller one's are disappearing. And they been buying back shares like crazy.

                              But my advice for your cash would be stay in cash and wait for the big pull back because it's coming. Buy a little gld for long term hold because when it starts to move it will be quick.

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                              • #30
                                Thanks. How does one buy gold by itself? Did I read something about the physical stuff versus gold on paper? Does that mean you actually have something you can hold and put in a safety-deposit box? Do people do that kind of thing anymore, and feel safe about it? And are there funds weighted in gold? Thoughts on other metals? I think my 403B is limited to proprietary funds.

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