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    A little bathroom reading:

    Bond Market to Bernanke and Obama: Fuck You


    I guess that 'lil plan to reduce mortgage rates actually did the opposite at first implementation, ruh roh.

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      Looks like another good day for the market. Although, the day is far from over. hehe

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        spx 875 might be in the cards...I aint buying it though.

        More of the same AMZN's @ ~84.75 today, and opened FSLR puts @ ~152, shoulda just hit the 'ask' at 158 to get filled more, bastard sold off before I got filled, but oh well. That's a sure winner to the upside, lol (and it isnt even in China either) Amazing what low float and an assload of paniced shorts can do, eh?

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          If any of you guys are still in this racket... I found this pretty interesting about some of the surprisingly questionable data coming out lately:


          9) Seasonal factors skewing the February data

          To be sure, there have been several data releases in February that have lined up on the strong side of expectations. Caveat emptor on any February data point that is seasonally adjusted at a time of the year when winter weather typically forces most of the country into hibernation. This was no ordinary February. At an average of 37 degrees (F), the month was two degrees warmer than a year ago and four degrees balmier than two years ago. As ML said, almost everyone likes to talk about how the latest data have all of a sudden signaled a turn in the economy, with retail sales, home sales, and this week’s durable goods report. Everyone was so excited about a 3.4% increase in February orders, and it seems as though the headline was taken completely at face value. But again, like so many indicators, the seasonal adjustment factor was extremely aggressive in providing a record boost (in this case) to the top-line figure. ML calculates that if a typical February adjustment factor had been used, orders would have shown a 5% collapse last month. We are still in the process of trying to figure out why this happened – it could be due to the mild weather compared to the last two years. The YoY trend in the non-seasonally smoothed orders data shows that the pace is still testing unprecedented negative terrain (-29%); ditto for shipments (-20%). The durable goods inventory/shipments ratio at 1.88 is close to an all-time high. That spells more production cutbacks and deflation pressure as we move into the second quarter.

          So, we do advise caution here because we have seen a very aggressive set of seasonal factors that made the raw data look extremely strong in February. The seasonal adjustment for new home sales, for example, was the strongest since 1982. For orders, it was the strongest since the data were first released in 1992. The retail sales number in February in non-seasonally adjusted terms was the worst, a 3% decline actually, on record, and yet again a strong seasonal adjustment factor made it look flat … or flattering, we should say. Beware of reading too much into the data in February when a 40,000 raw non-seasonally adjusted housing starts number suddenly becomes a headline seasonally adjusted figure of 583,000 at an annual rate.

          <plucked from here>



          Now they wouldnt be lying to us again, would they?


          Anyhoo, Friday I tried to get some more FSLR puts on that parabolic ramp up, and the bastard sold off yet again before I got the fill. Oh well, I got enough crap in place for the month. We'll see how this plays out.

          BTW...anyone think GM is going under? Seems all these extensions and delays are just prolonging the demise. I know GM really isnt doing much right now to boost sales...I dont see anything that I would jump on coming out of them, and for that matter, a guy at work was bringing up a point of "Do you know anyone who bought a new car lately?" Good point, hmm.

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            Andy,

            GM is not going to go bankrupt. Because this administration loves unions. And their going to pretent to play hardball but will do what ever they can to keep them around.

            They recently came out and said they wanted the right to takeover any company they feel that might have a bad effect on the economy. Their just setting the country up to be taken over by the socialist party (democrates).

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              I'm reading Wagner is booted per gubment now, hmmm. And something about Obama saying 'stock holders and creditors' taking on the burden in a taped on Friday interview? Ruh roh.

              This should get interesting.

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                Why not... -GMPG @ .84

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                  Looks like GM is toast. Out of my puts @ 1.35, not much meat on the bone left.

                  Grabbed another handful of FSLR puts when it tried to touch 140, I'm really liking that one...total stupid-time stock. A blurb that maybe Japan might do something with solar and it rallys $10, then sells off again, lol. Holding 145's and 135's, up real nice. Also still holding my AMZN pile.

                  Anyone here do anything lately, or is the non-political head in the sand bagholder convention somewhere else? Just kidding Kinda feel lonely here and probably will just lay low now.

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                    It looks to me that 930+ is a resistance level for the S&P 500 and if it manages to breach through it until 950, it is a good time to buy in for a rally.

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                      Any recent thoughts?

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