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    #16
    dr young, norco is west of new orleans. far enough not to suffer category 4 winds. lake charles is 20 miles from the texas stateline, nowhere near katrina.
    so we are talking only about 8 percent of the nations refining capibility.

    Comment


      #17
      DA, I didn't know that you are such an expert on oil and gas production. I am impressed.

      Here is an assessment estimating 10% loss of the nation's refining capacity:

      http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl...tory/Business/

      By BARRIE MCKENNA AND PATRICK BRETHOUR
      Wednesday, August 31, 2005 Updated at 9:16 PM EDT
      From Thursday's Globe and Mail

      Hurricane Katrina has become the disaster scenario that the oil market has fretted about for months: a sudden, massive disruption to an already overstretched refining industry.
      Some information from this article:
      • 20 oil rigs and platforms are missing int he Gulf and one ruptured gas pipeline is on fire. The status of many other rigs and platforms are uncertain. This seems to be worse that most other news sources suggest.
      • Although restoration of electricity is the main reason why most of the refineries are down, there is water damage from the flooding that may delay the re-opening of many of the refineries.
      • US EPA is suspending summer sulphur and anti-pollution measures to increase the efficiency of refiners and allow earlier releases of stockpiled winter fuel.
      • Nine refineries with a combined refining capacity of 1.8 barrles of oil are not shut down, representing 10% of the total U.S. refining capacity. Seven refineries as far away as Texas and Tennesse are at reduced capacity due to suspended offshore production and problems with pipelines. Refiner margins have tripled.
      • 95% of oil and 88% of natural gas production in the Gulf has been shut down, equal to 1.43 million barrels of oil and 8.8 billion cubic feet of gas per day.

      Comment


        #18
        Bad news keeps coming.

        http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...print/asection
        Critical U.S. Supply Line Is Disrupted
        By Neil Irwin
        Washington Post Staff Writer
        Thursday, September 1, 2005; Page A01

        The effects of the monster storm that devastated the Gulf Coast spread through the nation's economy yesterday, disrupting shipping and rail networks and sending prices for lumber, coffee and other commodities soaring.
        New Orleans is the main path for 60% of US grain exports and 26% of the nation's natural gas and crude oil. Some 49 billion of other goods flow in and out of the ports of New Orleans and the Mississipi. Many trucking and rail carriers have stopped all freight traffic through the area, with no clear indication of when they will resume.

        Significant portions of the nation's supply of a number of items has been disrupted, with very likely steep rises in the prices of these items as shortages develop, for example:
        • Coffee. New Orlean warehouses hold 211 million pounds of coffee, a quarter of the nation's supply. Coffee prices is already up to $1.01/lb.
        • Bananas. Chiquita reports severe damage to its facility which stores over a quarter of the nation's banana supply.

        Stoppage of nearly 60% of the nation's grain will result in large increases in shipping costs of grain (moving grain by train costs 5x as much) and alternative shipping paths lack specialized storage and equipment needed to handle the grains. As the article points out, "a glut of grain and widespread spoilage could yield a disastrous season for farmers".

        The article tried to find some "bright" side to the news, saying that this may be the start of a economic boom for the depressed economy but the news that it cited to support this was bad also. Lumber prices have already jumped by $10 to $297 per thousand board feet. I think that concrete and steel prices will likewise jump in the coming months.

        Economists are now revising their estimates of US output but are also struggling to put a brighter face on the situation. They are holding back estimates until more information regarding the energy impact is available. But, a 10% reduction and the corresponding price increases will hit the economy hard. The economic impact of Katrina is going to be far greater than 9/11, which disrupted the economy for only a week or so. It will be many months for New Orleans. The reverberations will be substantial with 10% or greater increases of food, energy, and other commodity prices.

        Wise.
        Last edited by Wise Young; 1 Sep 2005, 7:30 AM.

        Comment


          #19
          Unbelievable. This must be the most serious nature catastrophe ever in modern America’s history.

          Comment


            #20
            This is a very interesting thread, athough I'm still trying to get my head around the human aspect which is undoubtedly for many tragic and for many more a royal pain it is sobering to realise how fragile even an economic powerhouse can be to a single act of mother nature. I'm a little surprised there is not more world coverage, although I suspect it is taking a while for the scale to sink in, much like with the asian tsunami.
            DA, please be assured that I am not aware of anyone claiming that the USA deserved it or it was someone or others fault.
            I hope the rest of the world pitches in where possible.... I am guessing it is more a problem of logistics than resources though.
            Intense.

            Comment


              #21
              dr young, my county account for more gas refining than almost 2 louisiana's. just 1 county. houston-baytown-texas city account for more than 2 louisiana's. the next time you visit utmb, take a look north toward texas city. then look toward the gulf. the oil rigs line the horizon off galveston coast.( ofcourse this type of production is banned in mass. the view is more important.) so ofcourse i'm expert. we drink oil in texas. louisiana makes up a small percent of oil. lake charles, on the western side of LA makes up half of its oil. the oil reserves, which bush opened, sits in salt domes under south lafayette to beaumont-port arthur. the biggest being big hill in texas. all of which was not touched by katrina. no excuses for oil companys to raise prices so high.


              lets talk about grain. its being reported new orleans is the nations top port in tonnage. another lie. new orleans is 5th. look for yourself.

              http://www.portofcorpuschristi.com/p...E_RANKINGS.pdf

              these are 2003 numbers. when 2004 numbers come out the new orleans will be 5th and south LA second to houston. btw, beaumont is a strong grain port city.

              the big industries are taking advantage of katrina.
              Last edited by DA; 1 Sep 2005, 11:03 AM.

              Comment


                #22
                A little mitigating news:

                Coffee. While we need not be concerned with the price of coffee doubling (after all, we drink maybe a dollar's worth per day), the insurance companies better be worried. The numbers are lower than initially reported but still pretty bad. According Néstor Asorio, executive director of the International Coffee Organisation in the an article entitled Katrina blows up storm in a coffee cup for US, there are about 96,000 metric tons of coffee stored in New Orleans and are presumably underwater now. This is valued at about $260 million and represents about 8% of the US annual coffee use.

                Grain. The farmers of the Midwest are scrambling for temporary storage solutions for their grain that can't be shipped due to the fiasco in New Orleans. Plastic tarps and other storage devices are in demand http://www.grainnet.com/info/article...pe=bn&ID=27900 and the companies that manufacture these are going to be making a bundle. Also, I wonder if spoiled grain might still be usable for biodiesel, thereby alleviating some of the oil crunch, especially as everybody will be looking to conserve and to not buy as much gasoline. It may also help the farmers who are already under enormous financial pressure due to the high cost of fuel and fertilizers necessary to run their farms and trucks. According to http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald...l/12526765.htm website,
                "Without a doubt this is probably the most expensive crop we've ever put in the field," said Robert Holcomb of the University of Minnesota's Southwest Research and Outreach Center in Lamberton.
                But the bad news keeps coming. What many people don't realize is that most of the nation's chickens are grown in the South. According to the following article:
                Posted on Thu, Sep. 01, 2005

                In food world, chicken, seafood bear brunt of hurricane

                By Jane Snow

                Beacon Journal food writer

                While food lovers worry that one of the most beloved regional cuisines in the United States has been wiped out, grocery shoppers are warned to brace for a different kind of shock.

                Because of Hurricane Katrina, consumers can expect to pay a lot more for chicken in coming weeks, and some popular seafood items may not be available at any price.

                Hundreds of thousands of chickens were killed when Katrina ripped though the country's prime chicken-producing states. Early reports from Georgia, the nation's top producer of frying chickens, pegged the loss at more than a quarter of a million chickens, said Richard Lobb, spokesman for the National Chicken Council, a Washington, D.C., trade association that represents farmers and processors.

                Georgia farmers have reported that 17 ``chicken grow-out houses'' -- low-slung buildings that each house an average of 20,000 to 22,000 fowl -- were destroyed by hurricane-spawned tornadoes. Most farms have one or two grow-out houses, Lobb said.

                The damage to Mississippi's poultry industry is still unknown because communications were cut off by the storm. Losses are expected, though, and all Mississippi chicken processing plants -- sturdier structures that are better suited to withstand storms -- have suspended operations temporarily, Lobb said. Mississippi is fourth in the nation in chicken production at 4.3 million pounds in 2004.
                According to USA Today, the Gulf states are the top shrimp producers. Louisiana is the top oyster producing state in the United States. On top of the fact that 62% of the nation's corn and soybean go through New Orleans and the Mississippi River, food producers will be feeling the pinch.

                Wise.

                Comment


                  #23
                  I watched CNN earlyer today. It seams like the logistics is a problem as mentioned here. Some also calls for more military personnel on the ground, they says it is not enough with the National Guard - not enough "boots". This should maybe have been addressed and sorted out earlier, since warnings were given. Compared to the Tsunami in Asia there was no warnings. Is this a problem as told on CNN? DA – maybe you should call your troops back from Hollywood to help in the Gulf States.

                  Comment


                    #24
                    leif most places is still roof top water. not much arrmy can do there. getting 100,000 ppl out. where would they go? houston has 60,000 right now. beaumont has 10,000. other states need to step. i don't know why the buses haven't left. the only thing i could think of is more troops for security.

                    Comment


                      #25
                      I heard that there was some shooting outside the super dome, maybe that’s the reason for the bus departure delay. I guess ppl are getting pretty desperate. Special boats can be used if water level is to high some places.

                      Comment


                        #26
                        DA and Leif,

                        Though this may seem harsh, I think that they lack leadership in New Orleans right now. They were unprepared in New Orleans for this kind of disaster and now they don't have anybody who is making the right decisions. Of course, this is easy for me to say saying in New York but consider the following:

                        1. Superdome. On Monday (the day after Katrina hit), NBC had their cameras in the dome and they were already saying how bad the conditions were, that people were getting really upset, the place smelled, there was no toilet facilities, and people had no water or food. It would not have been that very difficult for them to commandeer a couple of helicopters and flown in water, food, a couple of diesel generators to power loudspeakers. They could have gotten the crowd under control, and then made arrangements for them to be flown out a thousand at a time. It doesn't matter where they put them, even in some football field outside of New Orleans. It was something that had to be done. Now, it has escalated to the point of disaster evacuation.

                        2. Charity Hospital. They knew that there are over 1000 patients still in Charity hospital, that it has no power, food, water, or toilet facilities. They should have made this one of their highest priority evacuations. But, according to news reports, nobody has gone to them, nobody has even talked to them. They are in a state of panic, begging and pleading with any passing boat to take the sickest patient out. They had to move to the higher floors because their first floor was being looted and they did not have any police protection.

                        3. Bridges. In order to ease the rescue so that they don't have to use helicopters for everything, they need to be getting the army to work building pontoon bridges (or whatever) to be able to move equipment in and out of the city. Right now, there is no way to move large volumes of people out and heavy equipment into the city. This should be a high priority. But, nothing seems to be done in this area.

                        In the meantime, the television shows the mayor ordering 1500 of the police to stop the looting. Why? Lives are much more important than property. Here, it seems that they have thousands of people in two hospitals that are unprotected by police and not evacuated, but the mayor orders half of the police force to stop looting. The mayor apparently went into the Superdome to talk to people but retreated when he realized that the crowd was getting belligerent and may be armed. It seems to me that somebody with more common sense needs to take charge.

                        The radio just said that Pentagon has dispatched two active duty brigades to New Orleans. That is about 10,000 soldiers. I hope that whoever is leading these brigades would take charge of the situation both tactically and strategically, prioritize what needs to be done, and complete the rescue and recovery effort. We are now approaching the fifth day after Katrina and most of the people left in the waterlogged and isolated city are out of food and water. Food and water riots are occurring amongst the trapped people. While the Army Corp of Engineers may get one of the breaches repaired by the end of tonight, they don't think that they will get the bigger and worse one done for at least a week or more. Unless they get routes in and out of the city, there will be a lot more dead people.

                        Wise.
                        Last edited by Wise Young; 1 Sep 2005, 10:37 PM.

                        Comment


                          #27
                          Originally posted by Wise Young
                          DA and Leif,

                          Though this may seem harsh, I think that they lack leadership in New Orleans right now. They were unprepared in New Orleans for this kind of disaster and now they don't have anybody who is making the right decisions. Of course, this is easy for me to say saying in New York but consider the following:
                          I have to defend the liberal democratic mayor. this mayor got 80% out of new orleans. those in beaumont start school in the morning. the remaining, the majority, are hardheads. the hardest choice the mayor has made was to evacuate the city before the storm. dr young do you have any idea how many times this is done in a year, then the hurricane turn away at last minute. angry ppl then attack the mayor and say how they will stay next time. its a tough situation.

                          Originally posted by Wise Young



                          1. Superdome. On Monday (the day after Katrina hit), NBC had their cameras in the dome and they were already saying how bad the conditions were, that people were getting really upset, the place smelled, there was no toilet facilities, and people had no water or food. It would not have been that very difficult for them to commandeer a couple of helicopters and flown in water, food, a couple of diesel generators to power loudspeakers. They could have gotten the crowd under control, and then made arrangements for them to be flown out a thousand at a time. It doesn't matter where they put them, even in some football field outside of New Orleans. It was something that had to be done. Now, it has escalated to the point of disaster evacuation.
                          monday the news were saying new orleans survived without flooding.
                          nobody could have predicted the delayed flooding. i saw ppl on tv drinking and celebrating on bourbon monday.

                          Originally posted by Wise Young

                          2. Charity Hospital. They knew that there are over 1000 patients still in Charity hospital, that it has no power, food, water, or toilet facilities. They should have made this one of their highest priority evacuations. But, according to news reports, nobody has gone to them, nobody has even talked to them. They are in a state of panic, begging and pleading with any passing boat to take the sickest patient out. They had to move to the higher floors because their first floor was being looted and they did not have any police protection.
                          I agree on this point. the hospital should have gotten better attention.

                          Originally posted by Wise Young

                          3. Bridges. In order to ease the rescue so that they don't have to use helicopters for everything, they need to be getting the army to work building pontoon bridges (or whatever) to be able to move equipment in and out of the city. Right now, there is no way to move large volumes of people out and heavy equipment into the city. This should be a high priority. But, nothing seems to be done in this area.
                          it would take days to get the ppl and pontoons in place. but not a bad idea since it took days anyway to get the ball rolling.

                          Originally posted by Wise Young


                          In the meantime, the television shows the mayor ordering 1500 of the police to stop the looting. Why? Lives are much more important than property. Here, it seems that they have thousands of people in two hospitals that are unprotected by police and not evacuated, but the mayor orders half of the police force to stop looting. The mayor apparently went into the Superdome to talk to people but retreated when he realized that the crowd was getting belligerent and may be armed. It seems to me that somebody with more common sense needs to take charge.
                          the mayor bowed to pressure. during the first 2 days, tv coverage was attacking the looters and the police for not stopping them.


                          Originally posted by Wise Young

                          The radio just said that Pentagon has dispatched two active duty brigades to New Orleans. That is about 10,000 soldiers. I hope that whoever is leading these brigades would take charge of the situation both tactically and strategically, prioritize what needs to be done, and complete the rescue and recovery effort. We are now approaching the fifth day after Katrina and most of the people left in the waterlogged and isolated city are out of food and water. Food and water riots are occurring amongst the trapped people. While the Army Corp of Engineers may get one of the breaches repaired by the end of tonight, they don't think that they will get the bigger and worse one done for at least a week or more. Unless they get routes in and out of the city, there will be a lot more dead people.

                          Wise.
                          clinton said everyone should be out by friday night.

                          Comment


                            #28
                            DA, we may a liberal democrat out of you yet.

                            I listened to the radio (haven't had chance to watch television). It does seem like things are more under control although the numbers of people that they are finding in New Orleans is said to be as many as 200,000-300,00. There will be 24,000 National Guard people there by the weekend. Some active-duty army units are there already. The complaints from the local people were quite convincing but the Director of FEMA Mike Brown said that the reports of looting were exaggerated. He also said that the Superdome had been supplied with food and water (contrary to earlier reports) so that people were getting two meals a day and they are putting them into buses.

                            According to this article, http://www.sciencedaily.com/upi/?fee...katrina-la.xml

                            New Orleans flood waters start receding

                            NEW ORLEANS, Sept. 1 (UPI) -- Post-hurricane flood waters as deep as 20 feet began to recede in New Orleans Thursday as the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers wrestled with levee damage.

                            Maj. Gen. Dan Riley, chief of the corps' engineers, estimated the floodwaters had receded by as much as 2 feet overnight and would continue to flow out of the city at a rate of about a half-inch per hour, the New Orleans Times Picayune reported.

                            At least four breaches in levees surrounding the saucer-shaped city occurred after Hurricane Katrina came ashore Monday.

                            Riley said it would take at least 30 days to get the city pumped out, as helicopters and barges were being used to drop more than a thousand, 10-ton sandbags and about 250 concrete highway construction barriers into the largest levee break.

                            Comment


                              #29
                              Originally posted by Wise Young
                              DA, we may a liberal democrat out of you yet.

                              I listened to the radio (haven't had chance to watch television). It does seem like things are more under control although the numbers of people that they are finding in New Orleans is said to be as many as 200,000-300,00. There will be 24,000 National Guard people there by the weekend. Some active-duty army units are there already. The complaints from the local people were quite convincing but the Director of FEMA Mike Brown said that the reports of looting were exaggerated. He also said that the Superdome had been supplied with food and water (contrary to earlier reports) so that people were getting two meals a day and they are putting them into buses.

                              According to this article, http://www.sciencedaily.com/upi/?fee...katrina-la.xml

                              200,000 to 300,000, dang. no wonder everything is going to hell out there. i wonder if the 80% evacuate number is wrong too. i always thought it was too high, but i gave them the benefit of doubt.

                              Comment


                                #30
                                They finally moved the patients from Charity Hospital

                                http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...print/asection
                                'There Was Real Heroism'
                                Workers Rescue, Tend to Thousands
                                By Dafna Linzer and Peter Slevin
                                Washington Post Staff Writers
                                Saturday, September 3, 2005; Page A22

                                Hundreds of sick and stranded patients who endured four nights in abandoned and flooded downtown New Orleans hospitals were rescued by military helicopters yesterday and moved to Louis Armstrong International Airport, where they had food and water but faced a new kind of misery: waiting in an overcrowded and understaffed terminal for transfers to medical centers around the country.
                                The article had added the following information
                                1. Dallas, Houston, and Louisiana hospitals are saturated and cannot take more patients. They flew 200 patients to Atlanta and others to San Antonio.
                                2. The help came too late for dozens of patients who died in the hospitals.
                                3. The move from Charity required medical personnel to carry the patients in stretchers across the flooded street and up 8 floors to the top of the building where the helicopters landed.
                                4. 30 people died in a nursing home.
                                5. Some of the staff of the hospitals had not eaten or drunk water for days.

                                Comment

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